国际秩序变迁中的中美亚太战略选择

Sino-US Strategic Choices of Asia-Pacific in the Transition of International Order

秩序(order)指"促进某些特定目标或价值的社会生活安排。"国际秩序(mternational order)是指在"维护国家社会(society of states)或国际社会(international society)基本或主要目标的活动模式(pattern)。"这个目标包括维持国际体系和国家社会本身的生存、维护国家的独立与主权完整。冷战结束特别是进入21世纪以来,国际秩序权力结构正不断发生变化,中国崛起是催生变化的重要原因之一。亚太地区政治秩序总体上呈稳定发展趋势,但依然存在可能引发军事冲突的不定因素,如朝核问题、台湾问题、恐怖主义袭击活动等。中国崛起不可避免地冲击美国霸权主导下的亚太地区地缘政治秩序,未来中美能否共同构建抑制地区冲突的有效机制决定亚太安全的可持续性。中美亚太战略可能会出现从维持现状到谈判对话、大国共治、再到权力转变的选择。

Order can be defined as a pattern that leads to a particular result, an arrangement of social life such that it promotes certain goals and values. International order is understood to maintain the pattern of fundamental and major goals of society of states and international society. The goal includes to sustain international system and the existence of nation society and to maintain national independence and sovereign integration. The power structure of international order is constantly changing and China＇s peaceful rise has been become the major reason which urged the transition of order since the end of Cold War especially the coming of 20 century. The general trend of Asia-Pacific political structure keeps development but there are still some uncertain factors which would lead security dilemmas such as North Korean nuclear issues, Taiwan issues and terrorist activities etc. China＇s rise will affect the geopolitical order of Asia-Pacific which has been dominated by US hegemony. Sino-US strategies of Asia-Pacific will sustain from statue quo, dialogue, co-governance to the transition of power.