农村贫困的动态变化

Poverty Dynamics in Rural China

根据2007年和2008年住户追踪调查数据,本文描述了两个年份的农村贫困状况及其变动特征。从两个年份的贫困发生率来看,两年一直陷入贫困状态的家庭的比重较低,但贫困类型结构也会受到贫困标准的影响。贫困标准越高,则两年贫困在总体贫困中的比重将有较大幅度的上升。从收入结构的描述中可以发现,包括外出务工收入在内的工资性收入增长对于农户脱离贫困状态具有重要的贡献,经营收入的波动是农户陷入贫困状态的重要因素。通过对外出行为的内生性处理,本文发现外出务工显著降低了农户陷入贫困的可能性,同时是贫困状态转换的重要因素。外出与贫困可能性之间的关系受到贫困标准的影响。贫困标准越低,外出的贫困减缓效应越明显。此外,本文还发现家庭健康状况也具有十分显著的影响。家庭不健康成员人数及其变化对贫困发生率及其转换具有显著的影响。

Based on the longitudinal surveys in 2007 and 2008 conducted in rural China, the paper discusses the poverty and poverty dynamics. According to the poverty incidence occurred in these two years, the share of poverty in both years is not so high. Of course, the structure of poverty type also depends on the poverty line. Higher poverty line might result in higher share of poverty in both years. The dynamics of income composition indicates, the wage income, including earnings from migration, contributed obviously the poverty reduction, while fluctuation in household business income is an important contributor to poverty. After endogenization on household migration decision, the findings show migration is significantly reduced poverty incidence. The poverty incidence for the household with higher probability of migration is lower. The poverty reduction effects of migration also depend on the poverty line. The poverty reduction effect is higher for the lower poverty line. Additionally, health also significantly affects poverty and poverty dynamics. The unhealthy member will result in higher poverty incidence.