全球化视角下的国际投机资本流动风险预警

Risk Early-warning on International Speculative Capital Floating from a Global Perspective

全球金融危机使我们面临着复杂的经济环境,大规模的国际投机资本的流入增加了国内市场和经济发展的不稳定因素。通过对国外四个经典的金融风险预警模型进行梳理,并应用一种改进的KLR分析法对我国2005~2008年国际投机资本的金融风险进行预警分析,表明我国在这四年间宏观经济均处于警戒状态,国际投机资本并没有对我国的宏观经济产生巨大的影响。

We face the complicated global economic environment by the financial crisis,and the inflow of a large scale of international risk capital inerease ettatic elements of domestic market and economic development.Through summarizing four early-warning models on financial risk,this article made an early-warning analysis on financial risk of international speculative capital in China from 2005 to 2008 applying the improved KLR analytical method.The result shows that the China′s macro-economy was always in danger status during the past four years,approving that international speculative capital has few influence on China＇s macro-economy.