我国税收水平变动的经济因素VAR分析

VAR Analysis of the Economic Factors of China′s Tax Revenue Changes

影响我国税收水平的经济因素主要有经济发展水平、财政支出规模和对外开放程度等。通过构建税收水平、农业水平、财政支出水平以及进出口水平四变量的VAR模型,分析税收水平与其决定因素间的动态关系,可以得出如下结论:我国税收水平受财政支出水平的影响较大;我国税收制度本身的完善对税收水平的影响是显著的;随着我国城市化进程的不断加快和经济发展水平的提高,农业产值占GDP的比重不断下滑。

The economic factors,which influence China′s tax revenue,are mainly the level of economic development,the scale of finance expenditure and the degree of opening-up,etc..By building the VAR model of four variables,which are the level of taxation,the level of agriculture,fiscal expenditure as well as import and export,this paper analyzes the dynamic relation between the level of tax revenue and its factors.A conclusion can be drawn that fiscal expenditure influences the tax revenue.The improvement of tax system will have a great impact on tax revenue.As China continues to accelerate the urbanization process and economic development,a ratio of agriculture output to GDP is continued to drop.