衰退时期的财政政策效应:政府投资转向与民间投资成长

On the Fiscal Policy Effect During the Recession:Government Investment and Private Investment

经济衰退期间,制定正确的财政政策,协调好短期调控与长期增长问题一直是政策制定者关心的重要问题。本文首次在Hansen(1985)模型基础上引入政府与民间投资,研究财政政策效果。基于中国数据的数值模拟结果表明:财政政策效果取决于政府投资与民间投资的互补性。如果政府投资能够带动而非挤出民间投资,财政刺激效果会更好。所以,为了促进经济平衡有效增长,必须不断探索政府投资的"四两拨千斤"作用,从而激活蕴藏丰富潜力的民间投资。

During the recession, how to formulate appropriate fiscal policy so as to strike a balance between short-term policy effects and long-term growth is always a concern for policymakers. This paper innovatively introduces government and private investments into the RBC model （Hansen, 1985 ） to study the effects of fiscal policy under China＇s circumstances. As reflected in the results, the effects of fiscal policy depend on the interaction between government investment and private investment. If government investment is able to promote rather than squeeze out private investment, fiscal stimulus could achieve better results. Therefore, in order to promote balanced and sustained economic growth, it is of great significance to further explore the catalyst role of government investment to boost private investment and tap the vast amount of private capital.