载人飞船遭遇M/OD失效风险评估及其防护设计

Assessment of M/OD Failure Risk for Manned Spacecraft and Its Shield Design

采用自主开发的M/OD风险评估软件系统,对某载人飞船遭遇M/OD的失效风险进行评估分析,给出了不同舱壁厚度下载人飞船遭遇M/OD的失效风险分析结果及其表面失效数分布。载人飞船舱壁厚度为0.6cm时,遭遇M/OD碰撞的非失效概率为96.447%,而当舱壁厚度减小为0.3cm时,非失效概率仅为9.460%。由于空间碎片具有方向性,使得载人飞船遭遇空间碎片时,其两侧失效风险最大,微流星体的任意分布性使其失效数呈带状分布。本文还对载人飞船进行了防护结构设计,给出了不同防护下载人飞船失效风险分析结果。采用与0.6cm厚舱壁面密度相同的Whipple和SW防护结构进行防护时,载人飞船非失效概率分别为99.704%和99.924%。若采用波纹角为30°和60°的CSW防护结构,则其非失效概率可分别提高到99.939%和99.995%,显著降低了载人飞船失效风险。

The failure risk of a certain manned spacecraft is assessed by using Meteoroid Orbital Debris Risk Assessment System （MODRAS）. The failure risk assessment results and the distribution of failure number in the surface of the manned spacecraft are obtained. The Probability of No Penetration failure （PNP） for the manned spacecraft is 96.447% when its wall thickness is 0.6cm. But the PNP is only 9.460% with wall thickness of 0.3cm. The failure probability of two sides is larger than other sides because of the directionality of orbital debris. The distribution of failure number in the surface of the manned spacecraft is in a shape of band with meteoroid impact. The risk assessment results of different shields are also obtained. The PNP can be enhanced to 99.704% using Whipple shield with same areal density for wall thickness of 0.6cm. If Stuffed Whipple （SW） shield with the same areal density is used,the PNP can be increased to 99.924%. When the Corrugated Stuffed Whipple （CSW） shield with 30° or 60° corrugated angle is used,the PNP can be increased to 99.939% and 99.995%. The failure risk is reduced significantly with shield performance enhanced.