金融危机下国家大规模投资政策模拟

Policy simulation on national large scale investment program based on the impaction of financial crisis

构建了一个中国多区域可计算一般均衡模型(MReCGE-C),利用该模型分析了我国应对国际金融危机的大规模投资政策。MReCGE-C根据城乡属性和年龄结构对居民进行了分组,放松了要素流动的限制,使劳动力和资本可以同时跨区域跨部门流动,并设计了一种基于居民终生效用的区域均衡机制,通过区域差距变量可以调控和测度区域差距。最后利用MReCGE-C模型针对国家大规模投资计划下的3种典型投资方案进行了模拟。结果发现在等量新增投资下,针对中部地区投资方案的GDP增长率高于针对中西部和全国投资方案的GDP增长率,同时针对中部地区投资方案对于城乡就业的拉动也要优于其余两种投资方案,而且可以实现缩小区域差距的目标。综合比较,目前国家大规模投资的优势应该指向中部地区。

In this paper,we aim to analyze the national large scale investment policies of China using multi-regional computable general equilibrium model. Firstly we introduce the progress of muliti-regional CGE. Secondly,we construct a multi-regional CGE model of China. In this model,we category the household by urban and rural attribution and age structure,loosen the limitation of capitals and labor flow,therefore capitals and labors can flow in regions. We design a mechanism of inter-regional equilibrium based on household utility,through which we can control and measure regional disparities. Finally,we simulate three typical scenarios of national large scale investment program. From the simulation,we find that,given the quantity of new investment,GDP growth rate of the program of investment to Central China is higher than the program of investment to the whole country and western China,the employment increase driven by the program of investment to Central China is larger than that to the whole country and western China,and also the program of investment to the central part can achieve the objective of narrowing regional disparities. So,we conclude that we should inject more investment to the central regions.