快速城市化区域粮食生产空间变化及驱动力研究——以北京市顺义区为例

Analysis of Spatial Variations in Grain Yield and Relevant Driving Forces in Rapid Urbanization Regions: A Case Studyon Shunyi in Beijing

本文首先从改革开放至今顺义区粮食产量变化入手,分析在快速城市化进程里,其由首都重要粮食生产基地转变为新兴卫星城过程中粮食生产数量规模变化的特征。进而,构建"顺义区粮食产量空间集聚-扩散度"与"不同产量水平区域空间重心"两个模型定量研究12年粮食产量的空间变化,并结合区域社会经济发展实际,应用灰色综合关联度法探索变化的驱动因素。结果显示:1996年各水平空间单元均较为分散,空间重心集中于全区中部;而12年之后,高水平和无粮食生产区域出现显著集聚,空间重心分别向东北和西南位移8.06km和5.17km;粮食播种面积、农民人均纯收入和财政收入与粮食产量变化呈强相关,是顺义区粮食产量变化的主要驱动因素。

The authors examined characteristics of variations in grain yield in Shunyi District, Beijing City,since the reform and opening-up.During the period,the district has shifted from a main production district to a new satellite city of Beijing,with showing that arable land has been increasingly exploited for other purposes.Meanwhile,the level of both the means of production input and the crop breeding continued to be improved greatly.As a result,over the past 31 years, Shunyi District and Beijing have reached their highest level of total grain output in 1994 and 1993, in succession,which were 8.02 and 4.89 times of that in 2003,the lowest total grain output.A ＂Shunyi grain yield variation spatial cluster-diffusion degree model＂and a＂spatial center of gravity of different yield levels model＂were developed in the present work.On the basis of the two models,spatial changes in grain yield over the recent 12 years were quantified carefully. Taking into account regional,social and economic development,a grey integrated connection grade was utilized to explore driving forces of such changes.Results indicated that 1）the ＂cluster-diffusion degrees＂of all spatial grain production units in 1996 were larger than 0.85, showing a dispersedly distributed characteristic.In contrast,it was found that high-level and non-food production areas explicitly converged to the lower＂cluster-diffusion degrees＂index in 2008;2）the grain production gravity center deviated progressively from the regional center during 12 years.In general,the gravity center of the high-level production areas showed a displacement of 8.06 kilometers towards the northeast.Also,a displacement of 5.17 kilometers towards the southwest for the non-food production areas was observed;and 3）the grain planting area,net income per capita of farmers,and financial revenue were positively correlated with the change in the grain yield,which were considered major driving forces in Shunyi District.In addition,eight factors（e.g.,the agricultural population and the secondary industry GDP）were found to be moderately correlated with the change.The order of the correlation degree for the eight factors was ρ2ρ4ρ3ρ7ρ10ρ9ρ5ρ1.Overall,there exist a decreasing trend in grain production and a transfer of grain-production regions to regions far away from urban areas and the industry development center.Similar to the pattern at the national scale,with decreases in the grain yield,the food production areas are moving from developed southeastern areas to developing western regions.