技术政策、产业调整与经济可持续增长——“日本悖论”的分析及对中国的启示

Technology Policy,Industry Adjustment and Sustainable Economic Growth:A comment on Japan Paradox and policy implication to China

经济增长归根到底是多因素作用的结果,除了技术创新之外,还包括技术政策、产业结构和社会制度等因素。当前,日本的科技高投入、高产出(专利和技术贸易)和长期经济低迷并存,对于这一"日本悖论"可以从技术政策角度进行分析:相比美国和德国,日本的技术政策是"追赶使命导向"的,这一技术政策目标与当前日本经济发展阶段不相适宜;日本技术政策体系中研发产业高度集中化和承担主体单一化,以及日本特定社会制度环境下的产业结构对技术政策的反应和调整受限,这些都阻碍了技术创新、扩散和应用来推动经济持续增长的传导机制。对"日本悖论"的分析对中国制定全面技术政策体系、实施相应产业调整以促进创新技术的扩散和应用,最终实现经济可持续发展提供了一定的借鉴。

Economic growth depends on the technology capacities,the technology policy,industry structures,and social institutions.The Japan paradox exists because the technology inputs and outputs（such as patent and technology trade）are independent of macroeconomic performance.Based on the comparison of the technology policies in US and Germany,the paper evaluates the Japanese technology policy in aspect of RD diversification and technology diffusions,which is not adaptive to the economic development stage in Japan toady.Moreover,the paper indicates that,to a great extent,industry upgrading and development rests on the operation environment to implement the policy goals.The dual economy,government tight-control,and privatization social security system in Japan have hindered the diffusion and application of innovation,and the reaction and adjustment of industrial structure,which ultimately obstruct the transmission from innovation to economy growth.The Japan lesson can apparently give instructive implication to China＇s technology policy making.