我国卫生支出结构与GDP关系研究——基于VEC模型

Research on the Relation between Health Expenditure Structure and GDP of China——Based on VEC Model

利用VEC模型对1978～2007年间我国卫生支出结构与经济发展的关系进行了实证分析,研究表明:长期内,政府、社会和居民卫生费用对GDP的弹性分别为0.37、0.30和0.27;短期内,居民、社会和政府卫生支出的弹性分别为-0.15、-0.19和0.53;对居民卫生支出施加一个正的冲击,将会降低社会和政府卫生支出。依据我国国情,改变卫生筹资结构,逐步增加政府卫生支出,将有助于经济增长和居民健康的改善。

By using VEC model, empirical analysis is made on health expenditure structure and economic development of China from 1978 to 2007, studies show that： long-term, the government, society and population health costs on the elasticity of GDP, respectively, 0.37,0.30 and 0.27; short-term , residents, community and government health expenditure elasticity of GDP, respectively, -0.15, -0.19 and 0.53; to impose a positive impact on population health expenditure, health expenditure of government and society will be reduced. Based on China＇s national conditions, changes in health expenditure structures and the gradual increase in government spending on health contribute to economic growth and improve the health of residents. By 2020, the health expenditure ratio of government, society and population will be 3：4：3, with the development of our economy, by 2050, eventually form a 4： 4：2＂ financing structure.