出口退税对出口的激励作用分析——基于VAR模型的实证检验

Effects of Export Tax Rebates on Export Performance:An Empirical Study Based on VAR model

文章在建立向量自回归模型(VAR)的基础上进行协整分析,考察出口退税对出口的激励作用,并分析其与外部需求对中国出口作用的差异,同时利用脉冲响应函数与方差分解探讨其中的动态特征。研究结果显示,出口退税、外部需求和出口之间存在长期均衡的关系,以弹性系数来看出口退税对出口的长期促进作用低于外部需求。脉冲响应函数与方差分解的结果表明,就短期而言出口退税的激励作用较为显著,而长期来看则外部需求对出口的影响力较大。针对上述结论文章给出了相应的政策建议。

Based on Vector Auto-Regression （VAR） model, this paper applies the method of cointegration analysis to study the effects of tax rebates on the export performance of China and uses the method of pulse response function and variance decomposition to test the dynamic correlations between them. The result shows that there exists a long-term relationship between the export tax rebate, foreign income and trade in China. In the long run, foreign incomes contribute more significantly to China＇ s exports, but in the short run, the export tax rebate has a more important impact on promoting China＇ s exports.