我国未来能源投资的效益与风险研究

Study on the Benefits and Risks of China's Future Energy Investment

能源投资效益是关系经济发展的一个重要经济参量。本文分析了我国能源行业投资效益的基本特征、各能源品种投资效益水平及发展趋势,并基于定量模型,对2006～2050年期间我国能源行业投资的直接和间接效益分别进行了预测,并着重讨论了投资效益的风险影响因素。结果认为,在基准情景下,2006～2050年我国能源行业投资可以期望的直接经济效益为95万亿元(2005年不变价),间接经济效益为105万亿元,这还不包括对促进就业、环境保护、技术创新等方面的社会效益贡献。而且,这些能源投资的效益是有保证的,投资风险较小。

Energy investment benefit is an important variable for economic development. The paper analyzes the basic features of China＇s energy investment benefits, the benefit level of every energy source and their developing trends. Then, based on some quantitative models, it predicts the direct and indirect energy investment benefits during 2006 - 2050, and explores the risk factors of energy investment benefits. The results indicate that under the BAU scenario, China＇s energy investment may get 95 trillion RMB （2005 constant price） direct economic benefits and 105 trillion RMB （2005 constant price） indirect economic benefits, which has not yet included the social benefits of employment, environment protection and technology innovation etc. Moreover, we argue that energy investment benefits are relatively ensured, with little investment risks in the projected period.