基于灰色系统模型的新疆奇台县农业供需水量预测及其平衡分析

Agriculture Water Supply and Demand Prediction and Balance Analysis in Qitai County Xinjiang Based on Gray System

对新疆奇台县农业水资源短缺情况进行分析,并运用灰色系统GM(1,1)方法,预测了其农业供需水状况及其余缺水程度。结果表明,当供水保证率P=50%时,2010,2015年缺水分别为11.19%和16.56%;而在供水保证率P=75%时,缺水则增加到22.05%和28.47%,缺水越来越严重。因此,在常规灌溉条件下,供水量不能满足农业用水的需求,且农业水资源的短缺将严重制约地区经济的发展。水资源供需矛盾必须依靠灌区水资源的深度开发和节水等措施得以解决,从而实现区域的可持续发展。

In this paper, the shortage of agricuhural water resources was analyzed and the agricultural water supply and demand, and water shortage level was predicted based on grey system GM （ 1, 1 ） model. The result show that when the water supply rate P=50%, the shortage of water quantity will inc^ase to 11.19% and 16.56% respectively in 2010 and 2015. And when P=75% the shortage of water quantity may increase to 22.05% and 28.47%. It＇s concluded that water supply could not meet the needs of the agriculture water demand in conventional irrigation and agriculture shortages will seriously constraine regional economic devel- opment. To achieve sustainable development in the region, it is suggested that contradiction between water supply and demand must be solved through further development of water resources and water-saving measures.