基于Monte Carlo的红树林主要林分因子模拟研究

Simulation of Mangrove Stand Factors via Monte Carlo

红树林生态系统的形成和发展需要经过一个漫长的过程,要完成一个周期的研究非常困难。应用模拟研究方法可以快速形成一个虚拟的现实林分(virtual stand),从而根本上可以解决研究周期长的问题。本研究以特呈岛的红树林古老林分为对象,应用Monte Carlo技术,在计算机上模拟生成一个与红树林古老林分相似的虚拟现实林分。结果表明,无论是从模拟次数,是一次还是多次模拟,还是从模拟林木分布,是胸径还是树高,虚拟林分与现实林分均无显著差异。说明应用Monte Carlo方法可以快速生成虚拟现实林分,满足研究所需的各种类型的林分。

It is very difficult to accomplish a complete cycle research on mangrove systems since their formation and development last quite a long time. However, the problem concerning a long research cycle can be fundamentally solved by applying simulation means to establish a virtual stand. In this paper, an oldgrowth stand of mangrove on the Techeng Island was used as an objective, and Monte Carlo technology and certain approaches of biomathematics were adopted to simulate a similar virtual stand by computer. The results showed that no notable differences between the real and virtual stands were found no matter how many times the stand, the distribution of forest, the basal diameters, and the tree heights were simu- lated, showing that Monte Carlo technology could help accelerate the formation of various types of virtual stands to satisfy the needs of the researches on various real forest types.