货币政策效应、经济增长与通货膨胀预期实证研究

An Empirical Research on Effects of Monetary Policy, Economic Growth and Iinflation Expection

本文利用1990—2009年的样本数据,采用HP滤波分离出M2、GDP、CPI、信贷投放,固定资产投资增长率序列的趋势成分和波动成分后,以货币供应量M2和信贷投放为货币政策的传导工具为研究对象,通过构建SVAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解进行实证检验得出:政府不仅应该考虑货币投放规模和投放方向,更要考虑在适当的时机调整和收缩宽松的货币政策,在合适的时间点紧缩流动性,以防止经济复苏后的货币乘数效应,还有加大人民币汇率双向浮动的幅度,改变人民币升值预期,选择合理的汇率—利率组合。把货币供应量和信贷投放一起作为当前央行调控的工具,通过直接和间接的方式,增强货币政策的传导效用,缩短货币政策的滞后周期,提高政策的有效性和及时性。

This paper, by making use of the sample date of the 1990-2009, utilizes HP filter to isolate M2, GDP, CPI, credit, fixed assets investment growth rate＇s trend and volatility, and makes the money supply M2 and credit delivery to be the conduction of monetary policy instruments as the object of research . By constructing SVAR models, using impulse response functions and variance decompositions method to empirically analyze monetary policy, economic growth and inflation in china,it makes some conclusions： in order to the money multiplier effect of prevent economic recovery, the government should consider not only the scale and the direction of money supply, but also consider the appropriate liquidity, as well as to increase two-ways floating RMB exchange rate.h should use the direct and indirect ways to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy, shorten the lag of monetary policy cycle and improve policy effectiveness and timeliness.