自然灾害发生前后灾区农户收入影响因素的对比分析——以汶川为例

Comparative Analysis of Influence Factors for Household Income Before and After the Natural Disaster:A Study of Wenchuan

本文以汶川地震为研究背景,通过构建灾害发生前后灾区农户的收入模型,实证研究了灾前、灾后影响受灾地区农户收入的主要因素及其异同。除此之外,本文从高低收入组间差异角度,实证分析了灾害发生前后农户收入影响因素的组间差异。研究表明,无论是灾前还是灾后,外出务工对农户收入都具有显著的正向增长作用,且灾后这种影响比灾前有所扩大。地震发生后,家庭经营收入对农户收入的增长作用比灾前有所增加。地震对高低收入组农户外出务工情况产生了不同程度的负面影响,由此可能导致高低收入组间农户收入差距的进一步扩大。最后,本文提出了相应的政策建议。

Taking Wenchuan Earthquake as the research background, by building household income equation before and after the earthquake, this paper analysis on the differences and similarities on the main factors that impact on the household income in disaster areas. Besides, it divides the farmers into two groups by income level and explores the differences on the main factors between groups before and after the earthquake by empirical analysis. The result shows that household with members of migrant workers takes an apparently positive effect with household income before and after the earthquake. After the earthquake, the proportion of household operating income takes an apparently positive effect with the household income. The earthquake takes a different impact on the case of peasants＇ outgoing for employment between the high and low income groups, it may lead to the income gap between groups expand in the future. Based on the analysis, it proposes some suggestions.