系统动力学在阿什河流域水污染控制规划中的应用

System Dynamics in the Ash River Basin Water Pollution Control Planning

文章简要介绍了系统动力学,分析了流域水污染控制系统的特点,然后以阿什河流域为例,建立了阿什河流域水污染控制规划系统的系统动力学模型。该模型以18个状态变量为核心,19个速率变量以及其他辅助变量组成。并对模型做了有效性检验,通过历史性检验和灵敏度分析,可以认为该模型能够真实反映现实系统,稳定性较强,可用于阿什河流域水污染控制的分析及预测。

This article briefly describes the system dynamics and analysis the characteristics of river basin water pollution control system. It has set up the System Dynamics model of Ash River Water Pollution Control planning system. The model is based on 18 state variables as the core, 19 rate variables and other variables. It also conducted the validation of the model. Through the historic test and sensitivity analysis can be seen that the model can be a true reflection of the reality system, and it has more stronger stability. The model can be used to Ash River Basin Water Pollution Control analysis and forecasting.