FDI对天津进出口贸易的影响——基于1985—2007年的计量模型分析

Empirical Investigation of FDI's Impact on Import and Export Trade of Tianjin——Based on Econometric Model from 1985 to 2007

随着改革开放步伐的不断加快,天津作为沿海开放城市在吸引外资和对外贸易方面取得了显著成效。特别是入世后,天津引进FDI和进出口贸易都呈现出高速增长。本文首先以统计数据为基础分析了天津的FDI与进出口贸易现状,然后通过建立计量模型,运用协整分析及格兰杰检验从总量分析FDI对天津进出口贸易总量的影响。其次,从贸易商品结构和贸易方式结构角度研究了FDI对天津进出口贸易结构的影响。研究表明,FDI对天津市进出口贸易总额存在积极的拉动效应,对进出口商品构成产生明显的影响作用,有利于改善天津产业结构。同时也发现了天津引资过程中存在的一些问题,并就其提出对策。

With the step of the reform and opening-up speeding up, Tianjin, one of the leading cities in China＇ s coastal areas of opening-up, has achieved rapid development in the introduction of FDI and foreign trade. Firstly, based on the statistical data, the paper analyses the status quo of FDI and import and export trade of Tianjin, and then, by establishing econometric model, makes an empirical study of FDI＇ s impact on import and export trade with the methods of co-integration test and Granger test. Secondly, starting from the point of commodity and structure of trade, it studies FDI＇ s impact on import and export trade structure of Tianjin. The findings show that FDI has promoted the development of import and export trade and the optimization of trade structure, which plays a part in the improvement of industrial structure. Meanwhile, it finds out some problems in the introduction of FDI and offers some suggestions.