盈余质量、制度环境与分析师预测

Earnings Quality,Institutional Environment,and Analyst Forecasts

本文通过研究2003—2007年证券分析师对我国上市公司盈余预测的特征,发现公司财务报告中的盈余信息质量对分析师预测表现具有显著的影响。结果表明,公司盈余质量越高,分析师预测越准确,分歧度越小。研究还发现,宏观制度环境对分析师盈余预测同样有显著的正面影响。上市公司所处地区的制度环境越好,分析师盈余预测的准确度越高,分歧度越小。同时,完善的制度环境在一定程度上能够削弱盈余信息质量对于分析师预测表现的影响。本文的结论对于加强上市公司财务信息监督和健全宏观制度环境具有参考价值。

Using analyst earnings forecasts made between 2003 and 2007 for a sample of Chinese public companies, this study examines the relationship among earnings quality, the institutional environment, and properties of analyst forecasts. Empirical results show that earnings quality is positively associated with analyst forecast accuracy and is negatively associated with analyst forecast dispersion. We also find that in regions with more developed institutions, analyst forecasts are generally more accurate and less dispersed. Furthermore, the relationship between earnings quality and analyst forecasts is attenuated. Our findings have important implications for the continued regulation of financial reporting and the improvement of the institutional environment in China.