基于固定影响变截距模型的湖北省旅游业发展影响因素回归分析

REGRESSION ANALYSIS ON THE IMPACTS OF TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN HEBEI PROVINCE BY VARIABLE CUT-OFF DISTANCES BASED ON FIXED EFFECT MODEL

基于湖北省1999—2008年旅游业发展数据,用固定影响变截距模型建立了回归模型,对影响其旅游业发展的因素进行实证分析。发现突发事件、旅游资源、旅游服务设施、旅游交通条件、旅游活动组织能力以及区域经济发展水平等因素影响显著,而旅游人力资源和旅游教育水平因周期长,影响效果不明显。在此基础上,提出了建立和完善旅游应急系统、重视旅游资源的开发和旅游产品的设计、发挥现代旅游交通优势、提升旅游行业服务水平等提升湖北省旅游业竞争力的对策和建议。

Based on data on tourism development in Hubei province from 1999 to 2008,this theis establishes a regression model to take an empirical analysis on the factors affect its tourism development with a fixedly variable intercept model.It has found that unexpected events,tourism resources,tourism services and facilities,tourism transportation,organizational skills of tourism activities as well as the level of regional economic development are significant,while tourism human resources and tourism education level are not significan.Finally,it proposes that we should improve tourism emergency response system,better design tourism products,use the advantages of modern tourism traffic and enhance tourism industry service standards to promote tourism development of Hubei province.