基于R/S分析黄河及黄土高原主要河流水资源的变化

Analysis of Water Resources Variation of Yellow River and Main River in the Loess Plateau with R/S Method

河流水资源观测资料反映河流随时间变化,它表现为一时间系列。作为非线性分析的工具,R/S可以有效地分析这些资料的时间系列。将R/S这一时间序列分析方法引入到水资源观测资料的处理和分析中,并应用该方法对黄河及黄土高原地区主要河流在1956—2004年间水资源观测数据进行处理,预测了今后黄土高原地区水资源的变化情况。分析结果表明,黄河及黄土高原地区主要河流径流量赫斯特指数在0.2771～0.3305之间,均小于0.5,背离了正常的长程相关趋势性增强的变化规律,预测了径流量逐步增大的趋势。

The observed data of water resources of a river is a time series,reflecting river evolution.The Rescaled Range Analysis is an effective tool toward analyzing time series.Thereby it was introduced to process and analyze the water resources data in this study.The mean yearly values of the water resources of the Yellow River from 1956 to 2004 and that of the main rivers in the Loess Plateau during this period are processed for furthering sight on their tend in the next years or decades.The results show that the Hurst exponents of the runoff of the Yellow River and that of the main river in the Loess Plateau are less than 0.5,between 0.2771～0.3305.These values,with an enhanced trend,deviate from the normal variation of the long-distance correlativity,and an accretive trend is therefore forecasted.