乡村劳动力转移和中国技术进步率的测算

The Rural Labor Transfer and The Research of China` s Technical Change

通过将制度因素引入柯布-道格拉斯生产函数模型,并将乡村劳动力转移作为技术水平的替代变量,本文利用扩展索罗模型对1986～2005年中国的TFP进行测算,测算结果表明:TFP总的趋势是上升的,其增长率受到制度因素和乡村劳动力转移的巨大影响,其中制度因素对TFP增长只有水平效应或者递减效应,乡村劳动力转移对TFP增长的平均贡献达79%,邓小平南巡讲话和中共十六大前后乡村劳动力转移对TFP增长存在巨大差别。通过与徐佳杰、张军等学者的实证结果进行比较,本文在模型参数估计、TFP结果的稳定性方面更具有优势。

Through introducing system, into C-D production function, and treating rural labor transfer as substitution variable of technical change, this paper employs expended solow model to calculate the rate of technical change in China, which show： the rate of technical change grow on the whole, and its growth is affected seriously by the system factor and rural labor transfer, in which the system factor affect it degressively and the average contribution of rural labor transfer to the rate of technical change is 79 percent, there is great difference before 1992 and after 1992. Compared with the empirical analysis of Xu Jiajie and Zhang .Tun, this paper has more advantages in the estimation of parameters and the stability of the rate of technical change.