黑河流域人口承载力预测分析

The prediction and analysis of population carrying capacity in Heihe basin

人口承载力的研究对象是由若干个内部关系错综复杂、相互之间联系紧密的子系统所组成的"自然—经济—社会"复合巨系统,本文运用系统动力学建立复合模型仿真模拟预测黑河流域人口承载力状况,并建立黑河流域人口承载力的预警指标体系。复合模型预测数据显示,黑河流域人口承载力呈超载状态,而预警目标值Z=0.979<1,说明该区没有实现持续发展,Z12、Z14、Z21三个指标小于1,说明黑河流域生态环境和固定资产投资占比是影响黑河流域发展的主要因素。

The study object of population canting capacity is composed of various sophisticated and interrelated sub-systems. All these sub-systems build up a complex giant system including nature economy as well as society. With application of system dynamics the essay build a composite model and forewarning index system to simulate and predict population carrying capacity in Heihe basin. The prediction data of composite model illustrates that population carrying capacity in Heihe basin is an overload state. Meanwhile, the result of forewarning target is Z=0.979 〈 1, which means the region does not achieve a state of sustainable development. In addition, the indicators of Z12,Z14,Z21 are respectively less than one, which reveals that ecological environment and fixed-assets investment are two main factors impeding the development of Heihe basin.