春油菜菌核病流行强度的判别模型

The stepwise forecast model of epidemic intensity of sclerotinia disease in spring rape

在分析影响东北地区特别是黑龙江西部地区春油菜菌核病发病强度的气象因素的基础上，运用统计方法对历年春油菜菌核病发病数据进行分类，在初选出影响因子的前提下，利用多元统计分析中的逐步判别分析方法，对初选的因子进行再筛选，由此建立起各发病类别的判别模型，并对模型的判别效果进行检验，其判别正确率达９５％以上。

A forecast model for epidemic intensity of sclerotinia disease in spring rape was established by the stepwise discriminant analysis. This method was based on the meteorological factors which influencing the epidemic intensity of the disease and the incidence in Northeast, especially in Heilongjiang province. The correct rate of this method was over 95% by test.