基于灰色关联度分析的森林火灾危害程度及相关因子研究

Study on the grey correlation analysis between the harm's degree of forest fires and it's related factors

森林火灾危害程度的研究对森林防火工作具有重要的现实意义。根据森林火灾危害程度及其相关因子的灰色系统特征,利用灰色关联分析理论,建立了森林火灾危害程度及其相关因子的灰色关联度计算模型。通过均值化消除量纲处理,以森林火灾危害程度值为母序列,各影响因子为子序列,对广州市的30起森林火灾的危害程度及其相关因子进行了实证研究,所得结果符合实际情况。研究结果对森林火灾危害程度的判断具有重要意义。

Studying on the extent of the harm＇s degree of forest fires is of great realistic significance on the prevention work.Basing on the forest fire hazard factor associated with the characteristics of a grey system,we used grey correlation analysis theory,and established the model.Through eliminating the dimension of the original data by mean value theory,and taking forest fire hazard values as the mother sequence and other affecting factors as subsequence,we analyzed the threat of related factors of 30 forest fires in Guangzhou city.The result was matched with the real satuation in Guangzhou city and it can be used to judge the degree of a forest fire hazard.