珠三角区域经济发展的影响因素分析——基于面板数据协整理论的实证研究

The Factors Affecting Regional Economy of Pearl River Delta——The Empirical Study Based on the Panel Data

文章基于珠三角地区的非平稳面板数据,运用协整建模的理论和方法,对珠三角地区的科技投入、资本存量、产业结构、基础设施、人力资本与经济增长的关系进行实证研究,结果表明,以上五大经济要素与经济增长之间有着显著的长期均衡关系,且五大经济要素对经济增长的贡献各不相同。最后,提出了促进珠三角区域经济持续协调发展的相关政策建议:整合科技资源、优化资本结构、升级产业结构、完善基础设施、培育人力资本。

Based on the Pearl River Delta Economy municipal panel data, using co-integration modeling theory and method, this paper makes the empirical study for the relationship between science and technology input, capital stock, industrial structure, infrastructure, human capital and economic growth in the Pearl River Delta Economy, the result shows that there is the significant long-run equilibrium relationship between the five economical essentials mentioned above and economic growth, and the five economical essentials mentioned above are various to economic growth＇s contribution. Finally, this paper proposes the related policy suggestion promoting the Pearl River Delta economy to develop continuously and harmoniously, which is integrating science and technology resources, optimizing capital structure, promoting industrial structure, consummating infrastructure, cultivating human capital.