1949年以来工业化与城市化动力机制研究进展

Research Progess of the Dynamic Mechanism of China's Industrialization and Urbanization Since 1949

系统地回顾了建国后国内与海外学者对中国工业化与城市化动力机制研究的历程和主要成果,重点梳理了动力机制演进规律、研究特色及问题。认为中国工业化动力机制研究经历了马克思主义政治经济学垄断阶段;西学引介与国内实证并举,建构二元工业化理论阶段(1978-1990);21世纪前后基于实证建构制度变迁诱致型工业化驱动阶段。而城市化动力机制研究始于20世纪80年代,早期集中于人口、政府和市场驱动三方面实证研究,21世纪前后重点讨论FDI为代表的新生要素驱动机理等。总体上,工业化与城市化动力机制研究呈现1978、2000两个转折点,主要是因为制度改革造就的市场机制与政府行为的渐变转型。最后,从制度改革的深入、资源环境问题、人口结构转型、全球化与信息化深度发展等共同挑战展望了未来研究重点。

This article focuses on progress course ＆ achievements of the research of China＇ s industrialization＆urbanization dynamic mechanism, analyzed the evolvement of the influencing factors of the mechanism, research characteristics and the main issues of the mechanism. The authors think that the Whinese industrialization mechanism research has experienced three stages： monopoly stage of the Marxism political economy, dual-industrialization theory stage（ 1978- 1990） that the western theory to as introduced and the domestic empirical study was constructed, and the industrialization driving stage based on empirical study induced by the changes of institution around the 21st century. But the urbanization mechanism research began in 1980. In the early time, the study focused on empirical research of the population, the government and the market. Around the 21st century, the study focused on the newborn essential factors to construct the mechanism, represented by FDI. Generally, the China＇s industrialization and urbanization dynamic mechanism research has turning points in 1978 and in 2000. The mainly reason is that institution reform caused gradual transformation of market me chanism and government behavior. Finally, from the aspects of deepening of institution reform, resources and environment, population structure transformation, and development of globalization＆informationization, the article forecasted the future key researeh domains sach as institutional innovation during new industrialization and urbanization course, model＇ s evolution ＆ selection and its driving factors, influences of great events, and early warning, etal.