矿产资源需求理论与模型预测

The Mineral Resources Demand Theory and the Prediction Model

本文介绍了以人均矿产资源消费与人均GDP"S"形规律、矿产资源消费强度变化倒"U"形规律和矿产资源需求波次递进规律等为核心的能源和矿产资源需求理论,以及以此为基础建立的能源与矿产资源需求综合预测模型;系统预测了2010-2030年全球及中国一次能源、粗钢、铜、铝需求趋势,并与其他预测方法和预测结果进行了对比,论证了这一理论模型的先进性和预测结果的可靠性。

This paper describes the energy and mineral resources demand theory centered on capita mineral resources consumption and capita GDP S-shaped rules,mineral resources consumption intensity reverse U-shaped rules and progressive laws of wave rules for mineral resources demand,and the energy and mineral resources synthetic prediction model based on the demand theory.The primary energy,crude steel,copper and aluminum demand tendency in China and the whole globe between 2010 and 2030 was predicted by using this model,and the results were compared with the results obtained by other prediction methods.On such a basis,it is concluded that this theoretical model is advanced and reliable.