福建省冬季气温异常变化若干特征分析

Characteristics of Winter Temperature Variation in Fujian

本文以福建冬季滚动月平均气温最低（高）值定义了冬季最冷（暖）月，并基于最冷（暖）月平均气温和冷暖差异特征探讨了冬季变暖气候背景下，福建冬季气温变化的细节特征。分析显示：（1）近50年福建省冬季气温趋于上升，且增暖速度大于年平均气温。冬季最暖月平均气温的上升对冬季平均气温上升的贡献最大。（2）随着气候变化，冬季气温变化存在两极分化的趋势。21世纪以来，冬季冷暖月平均气温差加大，冬季最暖月平均气温继续保持上升趋势，但冬季最冷月平均气温却似有下降的趋势；（3）在暖冬评价时，使用冬季最冷月平均气温是否偏高，作为依据冬季平均气温距平是否〉0℃来评判是否暖冬的补充条件，是必要的、合理的，技术上也是可行的。

This is a study to explore the climate change of winter temperature in Fujian. Two new statistical characteristics, namely the warmest month （WM） and the coldest month （CM）, is used to indicate the extended feathers of winter temperature. WM （CM） is defined as the period of which the 30-day averaged temperature is the lowest （highest） of the rolling 30-day averaged values during winter. It shows that： 1） the winter is warming in the recent 50 years, and the rising rate of averaged winter temperature is higher than that of the yearly averaged one. And the getting warmer of WM mostly contributes to the winter＇s warming. 2） different aspect of winter temperature climate varies differently, even in the opposite. After the 21st Century, WM gets warmer and CM gets colder, thus their discrepancy enlarged. 3） for an assessment of a warm winter, it is necessary, reasonable and feasible to take the mean temperature of WM into consideration besides the experienced criterion that the winter temperature anomaly is above 0℃.