1998年货币政策回顾和1999年展望

Retrospect and prospect:Monetary policy of 1998-1999

１９９８年货币政策的重要特征：一是对外目标由防止人民币过度升值变成确保汇率的稳定，对内目标由抑止通货膨胀转向谨防通货紧缩；二是货币政策在多重目标之间寻找平衡；三是货币供应量增幅起伏较大。总的说来，货币政策达到了预期目的，金融运行平稳，但也有贷款投放进度不均衡等问题，其效力受到制约。综合考虑，１９９９年货币政策的目标应以国内目标为主，至少是国内目标和对外目标并重；既要继续实行积极的货币政策，以适度促进经济增长，更要重视金融风险。

Abstract Monetary policy of 1998 has three main features:The first is that the external target shifts from preventing from RMB over valued to the assurance of preventing from deflation;The second is that the monetary policy must seek trade off in multi targets,The third is the wider fluctuations of monetary aggregate.In a word,although the monetary policy of 1998 has reached the anticipated target,there are some problems,and the effectiveness of monetary policy has been restrained.on balance,on one hand monetary policy of 1999 should target at interal goal at least take internal and external aim equal.In 1999,we should go on taking active monetary policy to boost rational economic growth,on the other hand, we must pay attention to financial risks,and avoid its negative effect.