农民工返乡回流对当地新农村建设影响的冲量过程模型

The Impulse process Model for the Influence to the Building of New Countryside Because of the Rural Migrant Workers' Unemployment and Returing

2008年下半年以来,受世界金融危机和长三角、珠三角等沿海发达地区产业升级影响,农民工返乡回流,对当地新农村建设造成较大影响.构建冲量模型对这种影响进行实验模拟表明:农民工失业返乡将首先影响新农村生产发展、生活宽裕和乡风文明,随之村容整洁和民主管理也受拖累;发展农村非农产业,多渠道促进农民增收,并加强农村社会管理,可转危为机,将这种不利影响降到最低程度,使农民工失业返乡成为加快当地新农村建设的机遇和财富.

Since the second half of 2008, by the impact of world financial crisis and the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and other coastal developed areas＇ industrial upgrading, migrant workers from rural area have to return countryside, which cause greater impact on the local new rural construction .To build impulse model to simulate the impact which shows that： unemployed migrant workers return home will be the first to affect the production of the new rural development ,the rural well-off life and rural civilization, then the tidiness of village and the rural democratic management are also affected ;to development the rural non-agricultural industries, to increase peasants＇ income through various channels ,to promote and strengthen the management of rural society can minimize the adverse effects of such extent, even turn adversities into opportunities so that the unemployed migrant workers return home can be opportunities and wealth to speed up the local new rural construction.