马尔柯夫链在多介质环境归趋研究中的应用

Application of Markov Chain to Fate Evaluation on Contaminant in Multimedia Environment

以开放的环境系统为依托,阐述了马尔柯夫理论在多介质环境归趋研究中的科学性与合理性,并结合国家重点课题—黄河兰州段典型污染物迁移/转化特性及承纳水平研究,研究壬基酚聚氧乙烯醚(nonylphenol polyethoxylates—NPEOs)在黄河兰州段的环境归趋.研究结果表明,利用马尔柯夫模型可以确定污染物在环境介质间的迁移时间、环境介质内的滞留时间、任意时刻污染物在不同环境介质内的含量、给定时间内不同迁移转化过程的迁移量和降解量、环境系统达到稳定的时间、污染物在环境系统内的稳定分布、以及污染物的环境容量或排放标准.

The basic conceptions and principles of Markov chain are introduced, and the application of Markov chain to Multimedia environmental fate simulation is elaborated scientifically and reasonably according to the properties of environmental system. Markov Model is developed to evaluate the environmental fate of NPEOs （nonylphenol polyethoxylates） in Lanzhou Reach of Yellow River combined with the key project. It can be shown that the Markov Model can give out the transited time, the residual time, the transfer or transfor- mation rates, the time needed for the environmental system to be steady, the steady （or final）contents of contaminants in the multimedia environment, and the emission standards of contaminants due to the environmental carrying capacity .