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美国经济周期“大缓和”研究的反思 被引量：5

Rethinking on the Controversy about Great Moderation of American Business Cycles
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摘要 次债危机之前关于美国经济周期"大缓和"(Great Moderation)的讨论曾经是宏观经济学界的一个热点,本文在危机过后对"大缓和"涉及的各种假说进行跟踪研究。研究发现,在美国新一轮经济周期中冲击的传导机制大大增强了,过去受到肯定的因素如产业结构演化、库存管理改善等对弱化宏观经济波动仍然发挥了一定作用,次债危机使得各界对金融创新的"双刃剑"作用有了更深刻的认识。 The Great Moderation of American business cycle was very popular in macroeconomics before the subprime crisis.This paper reexamines the various hypotheses of Great Moderation after the crisis.The major findings are:(1) The transmission mechanism of shock was significantly magnified in the recent business cycle,(2) The evolution of industry structure and the improvement of inventory management still played some roles in macroeconomic stabilization,(3) The crisis made us understand more deeply the double-edged effect of financial innovation.
作者 曹永福
机构地区 中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所宏观分析与统计研究室
出处 《世界经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2010年第5期69-74,共6页 World Economy Studies
关键词 “大缓和” 外部冲击 产业结构 库存管理金融创新
分类号 F171.2 [经济管理—世界经济]
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参考文献14

  • 1曹永福.美国经济周期稳定化研究述评[J].经济研究,2007,42(7):152-158. 被引量：25
  • 2Bernanke, B. The Great Moderation. Remarks at the Meetings of the Eastern Economic Association, 2004.
  • 3Blanchard, O. , Simon, J. The Long and Large decline in U.S. Output Volatility. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2001 ( 1 ) : 135-174.
  • 4Campbell, J., Hercowitz, Z. The Role of Collateralized Household Debt in Macroeconomics Stabilization. NBER Working Paper, No. 11330, 2005.
  • 5Economic Report of the President. United States Government Printing Office, 2006.
  • 6Gai Prasanna, et al. Financial Innovation, Macroeconomic Volatility and Systemic Crisis. The Economic Journal, 2008, 118(527) :401-426.
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  • 8Homstein, A. Inventory Investment and the Business Cycle. Economic Quarterly, 1998,84 ( 2 ) : 49 -71.
  • 9Jermann, U. , Quadrini, V. Financial Innovations and Macroeconomic Volatility. NBER Working Paper , No. 12308, 2006.
  • 10Kahn, J., McConnell, M., Perez -Quiros, G. On the Causes of the Increased Stability of the U.S. Economy. FRBNY Economic Policy Review, 2002,8 ( 1 ) : 183-202.

二级参考文献30

  • 1龚刚.实际商业周期:理论、检验与争议[J].经济学（季刊）,2004,3(4):785-802. 被引量：35
  • 2刘树成.1997.《论适度从紧与结构调整下的经济周期波动》，经济蓝皮书《1998年中国：经济形势分析与预测》，社会科学文献出版社
  • 3张立群.2006.《中国经济周期微波化趋势探讨》，载于刘树成主编.《中国经济周期研究报告》，社会科学文献出版社
  • 4Ahmed, L. and Wilson, B. , 2004, “Recent U.S. Macroeconomic Stability: Good Policies, Good Practices, or Good Luck?”, Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 86(3), 824-832.
  • 5Arias, A., Hansen, G. and Ohanian, L., 2006, "Why Have Business Cycle Fluctuations Become Less Volatile?" ,NBER Working Paper, No. W12079.
  • 6Bernanke, B., 2004, "The Great Moderation", Remarks at the Meetings of the Eastern Economic Association.
  • 7Blanchard, O. and Simon, J. , 2001, "The Long and Large Decline in U. S Output Volatility", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 32 (1), 135-164.
  • 8Burns, A., 1960, "Progress toward Economic Stability", American Economic Review, Vol. 50(1), 1-19.
  • 9Cecchetti, S., Flores-Lagunes, A. and Stefan, K., 2006, "Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth", NBER Working Paper, No. W11946.
  • 10Clarida, R., Gali, J. and Gertler, M., 2000, “Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability:Evidence and Some Theory”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 115 ( 1 ), 147-180.

同被引文献78

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二级引证文献39

世界经济研究
2010年 第5期

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