农民工留城意愿影响因素的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis on the Factors Affecting Migrant Labors' Residence Tendency

本文采用2008年在浙江和江苏对农民工的抽样调查数据,运用Probit模型对影响农民工留城意愿的因素进行了分析。回归结果显示,女性比男性更倾向于留城定居,年龄对留城意愿的影响呈现倒"U"型,受教育程度对留城意愿具有显著的正向影响;有正在受教育的孩子、已婚但配偶不在同一城市等家庭因素具有显著的负向影响;在城市的社会融合程度和从业经历也会影响留城意愿,值得注意的是虽然经济因素在农村劳动力的外出决策中起着重要的作用,但已经不是影响农民工留城意愿的主要因素。

In this paper, we do an empirical analysis on the factors that affect the migrant labors＇ decision of settlement in the urban area using survey datas from Zhejiang and Jiangsu province in 2008. The results show that the residence tendency of female is stronger than that of male. The effect of age shows inverted U shape and education has a significantly positive effect. Family migrant structures, such as having a school-age child and separating from the spouse, have significantly negative effects. Social integration and employment experiences also have significant effects on the decision - making. But income doesn＇t have significant impact, and it isn＇t a main factor.