从流动性过剩(不足)到结构性通胀(通缩)

From Excess(Crunch)Liquidity to Structural Inflation(Deflation)

本文试图对近年来宏观经济领域流动性与通胀之间的交替变化给出一个基本的分析框架。研究发现,所谓流动性过剩(不足)实质是货币市场与非货币市场"双失衡"并存、市场处于非均衡状态的外化反映,流动性陷阱则是流动性不足的极端表现。而储蓄、消费失衡的经济结构矛盾容易内生货币条件宽松和流动性过剩的风险。随着流动性过剩向流动性不足逆转,物价也将表现为主要由初级产品和资产泡沫膨胀引发的结构性通胀向由于泡沫破裂导致的通货紧缩转化。因此,由流动性过剩导致的结构性通胀,由流动性不足引发的通货紧缩,以及相互之间的交替反复,很可能成为未来宏观调控长期面临的问题。这就要求进一步完善货币政策框架,更加关注更广泛意义上的整体物价变动,同时推动以扩大消费内需为核心的经济结构调整和改革,从根本上增强经济平衡和可持续发展能力,及早防范宏观经济金融风险。

The paper attempts to give an analytical framework of alternative change between liquidity and infla- tion in macro-economic fields in recent years. Researches have shown that excess （crunch） liquidity is essen- tially the existence of ＂ double imbalances＂ and the reflection of non-equilibrium market. Liquidity trap is an extreme case of crunch liquidity. Contradictions of economic structure due to savings and consumption imbal- ance would easily give rise to risks of loose monetary conditions and excess liquidity. With liquidity experiences from excess to crunch, price will also transform from structural inflation due to the expansion of asset bubbles to deflation due to the burst of those. Consequently, structural inflation due to excess liquidity, deflation due to crunch liquidity and the repeating alternatively will most likely to be the issues in macro-control in the long run. This calls for further improving the framework of monetary policy, more attention for overall price changes and promoting economic restructuring and reform aimed at expanding domestic demand, so as to enhance the ability of economic balance and sustainable development fundamentally and prevent macroeconomic risks in advance.