高技术产品市场预测方法研究:以移动电话为例

Research on the Market Forecasting of High-Tech Product:Case of Mobile Telephone

对高技术产品的需求预测，是高技术投资决策的关键，本研究从时间序列分析和因果关系分析出发，提出了高技术产品需求预测的多因素、多模型的分析方法，并以典型高技术产品移动电话为案例，对浙江省１９９６年到２０００年移动电话的需求量进行了预测，得出了较为满意的结论。

The demand forcasting of high-tech product is the key to the decision of high-tech investment.This research,based on the time series analysis and cause-effect analysis,provides the multi factors and multi models methodology for the forecasting of high-tech product.And this method is used to forecast the mobile telephone in year 1996 to 2000 in Zhejiang Province,and gets satisfactory results.