武器装备研制风险的GERT网络模型研究

Research on Weapon Equipment Development Risk Based on GERT Network Model

武器装备研制是一项庞大的系统工程,其研制过程充满了各种不确定性和风险,因此可以运用图示评审技术(Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique,简称GERT)对其进行研究分析。结合我军武器装备研制现状,分析了武器装备研制的全过程,在此基础上,运用GERT网络模型的相关理论,建立了武器装备研制过程的GERT网络模型,并运用解析法和模拟仿真2种方法对建立的模型进行了计算,得到了武器装备研制各阶段以及全过程时间和费用的期望、方差、风险度、概率分布图和累计概率分布图。研究结论对于有效地控制武器装备研制风险具有一定的借鉴意义。

The weapon equipment development is a huge systems, its filled each kind of uncertainties and risks ,therefore it can utilize the Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique to research on it. Unifies our army weapon equipment development present situation, analyzed the entire process of weapon equipment development, utilized the theories of GERT network model, established GERT network model of the weapon equipment development, used the analysis method and the simulation method to calculate model, obtained expectation, the variance, the risk, the probability distribution map and the accumulation probability distribution map of time and the expense of the weapon equipment development. The research conclusion has significance effect to control weapon equipment development risk