能源消费需求的系统动力学建模与仿真——以陕西省为例

System Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of Energy Consumption:Shanxi Case Study

为探索能源消费可持续发展能力,运用系统工程理论分析能源消费的影响因素,采用系统动力学方法建立能源消费需求动态分析模型。以陕西省为例进行实证研究,对未来一段时期内陕西省能源消费、经济发展、大气污染物的排放量等进行预测。研究结果表明:按照现有的发展模式,到"十一五"期末,陕西省较之2005年单位GDP能耗降低20%,SO2排放量削减12%的指标实现不了,未来节能减排的压力还将持续加大。最后,提出加强科技进步、优化能源结构、发展可再生能源等是实现能源消费可持续发展的有效途径。

In order to explore sustainable development of energy consumption, this study, taking Shanxi as a case study, uses the System Engineering Theory to analysis factors affecting energy consumption, adopted System Dynamics Method to establish the analysis model of energy consumption. Based on the actual data and the economic development target, this study predicted the evolutionary trend of energy consumption in the next period of time. The results show that： In accordance with the existing development model, by the end of ＂Eleventh Five-year＂, the target for unit of GDP energy consumption reduces by 20% ,and the SO2 emissions reduces by 12% will not be achieved. The pressure on energy- saving and emission reduction will continue to increase. Finally, putting forward effective measures to achieve sustainable development of energy consumption, such as strengthen science and technology, optimize the energy consumption structure and develop renewable energy, etc.