中国区域工业的不均衡增长及其影响因素分析:1978～2006年

Analysis on China's Regional Imbalance in Industrial Growth and Its Influencing Factors:1978～2006

本文分析了1978～2006年我国28个省、自治区、直辖市工业差距的演变动态与影响因素。研究发现,我国区域工业差距在1989～1997年扩大,而在1978～1988年及1998～2006年有缩小的趋势。导致区域工业差距变动的主要原因是,影响工业生产的因素在不同时间对不同地区发挥作用的方向和强度不同。外商直接投资和全要素生产率增长率的不同是导致区域工业差距扩大的主要原因,而生产率差异缩小是东中西部地区工业差距缩小的主要原因。

This paper analyzes dynamics evolution of industrial gap and influence factors of China＇s 28 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in 1978- 2006. It finds that the gaps between China＇s regional industries have expanded during 1989-1997, while a narrowing trend in 1978-1988 and 1998- 2006. The main reason leading to those changes is that the factors affecting the industrial production piay the role of the different direction and intensity in different regions and different times. The foreign direct investment and total factor productivity growth are major factors widening gap between regional industry, and the gap in technical level is main reason to narrow the industrial gap of the eastern, central and western regions.