中国城镇居民消费增长与波动的福利成本比较

Welfare Cost Comparison on Growth and Volatility of Chinese Urban Households' Consumption

本文在Lucas(1987)模型的基础上引入消费习惯,在数值模拟中使用不同收入群体消费增长和波动的数据,得到以下主要结论:一是促进消费增长比平抑消费波动更重要;二是习惯强度对两类福利成本之比的影响取决于习惯的增长效应和波动效应哪一个占优;三是在权衡消费增长与波动的福利成本时,平抑消费波动的经济政策能为穷人带来更多的相对福利效应。所以就相关部门而言,在确保消费增长的同时,不应忽视低收入群体消费波动的福利成本。

Based on the model of Lucas （1987） with habit formation, several meaningful conclusions are reached by simulation, using data of consumption growth and volatility from different income groups. Firstly, keeping growth is more important than erasing volatility. Secondly, the sensitivity of habit formation to the ratio of two kinds of welfare costs is determined by which effect dominates. Thirdly, to eliminate consumption volatility can bring more relative welfares to the poor when we take the welfare costs of growth and volatility into account. It is said that, as for the policy - makers, the welfare costs of the volatility of the poor should not be ignored even if we are on an up - ward consumption path.