人民币升值能否减少美中贸易逆差

Can RMB Appreciation Reduce U.S.-China Trade Deficit

美中持续的贸易逆差使人民币遭受了巨大的升值压力。1985年至2009年月度数据的计量结果表明,美中贸易逆差与人民币汇率之间不存在长期稳定的协整关系,但2005年7月汇改之后两者之间的协整关系开始出现,格兰杰因果关系检验的结果表明,中美贸易差额会引起人民币兑美元汇率的变化,但人民币汇率的变化却不会引起中美贸易差额的变化,因此人民币汇率仍然并非导致中美贸易差额的真正原因。除此之外,对美中商品分类贸易顺差和逆差的进一步分析显示,造成美中贸易逆差的真正原因是中国在劳动密集型和资源易耗性产业上所发挥的比较优势,而美国在土地密集型等产业上的顺差则表明美国可以通过发挥其在土地及高新技术等产业上的比较优势来缩减美中贸易逆差。

The continuous U.S.-China trade deficit causes RMB to suffer from tremendous up- ward pressure. Monthly data measured from 1985 to 2009 revealed that there was no long-term sta- bility of co-integration relationship between U.S. trade deficit and RMB exchange rate, while the co-integration relationship between the two started to emerge right after the Reform on the Ex- change Rate Regime of RMB in July 2005. Additionally, the results of Granger causality test depict that U.S.-China trade deficit is responsible for the variations in the exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, the change of RMB exchange rate is irrelevant to the variations in U. S.-China trade deficit. Consequently, RMB exchange rate is still not the exact reason giving rise to the U.S.-China trade deficit, which means that appreciation of RMB is unlikely to work out the is- sue of U.S.-China trade deficit. Moreover, the analysis on classified commodities＇ trade surplus and trade gap further revealed that the actual reason leading to the U.S. trade deficit is that Chinese la- bor-intensive industry plays a comparative advantage. In contrast, the U.S. surplus of land-intensive industry is able to prove that the United States are supposed to reduce the U.S. trade deficit by developing the comparative advantages of land and high-tech industries.