我国经常项目失衡与收入变动的关系——基于跨期消费平滑模型和我国的数据

Relationship between Current Account Imbalances and Income in China:an Analysis Based on Intertemporal Consumption-smoothing Model and China’s Data

本文构造了一个开放经济下的跨期消费平滑模型,从动态的角度分析经常项目失衡、收入以及持久性收入之间的关系。同时运用格兰杰因果关系检验、ADF检验、协整关系检验对我国的经常项目差额、收入和持久性收入的关系进行实证研究。结果表明我国的经常项目差额、收入和持久性收入之间存在长期协整关系,收入的增加导致经常项目顺差增大或逆差减少,持久性收入的增加导致经常项目逆差增大或顺差减少。此外还运用收入和持久性收入对我国经常项目进行预测,效果较好。

This paper establishes an intertemporal consumption-smoothing model in an open econ- omy and studies the dynamic relationship between current account, income and permanent income in China by employing Granger-test, ADF-test and cointegration-test. This result indicates that there ex- ists a long-run cointegration between current account, income and permanent income. The increase of income can increase current account surplus and the increase of permanent income can decrease current account surplus. Finally, this paper makes some suggestion according to our model and the empirical results.