外部冲击与浙江省出口贸易——基于细分贸易方式和商品类别的实证研究

External Shocks and Zhejiang’s Export:Empirical Analysis Based on Subdivision Trade Mode and Commodity Category

基于月度数据,实证研究了国外需求、竞争者价格、汇率等外部冲击因素对浙江省不同贸易方式和商品类别出口的影响。结果表明:国外需求冲击是影响浙江省出口贸易的最主要因素;汇率冲击与浙江省出口贸易为负向关系,其影响的弹性系数普遍在-1--2之间;竞争者价格对浙江省出口贸易的影响很小,对不同类别出口商品的影响方向不一致;机电类、高新技术类产品受需求冲击影响大,抗风险能力弱;加工贸易与一般贸易受需求冲击的影响相差不大。文章最后提出了相应的政策建议。

Based on subdivision trade mode and commodity category, this paper uses the data from January 2004 to August 2008 to empirically study the different impact of foreign demand, the prices of competitors, and exchange rate factors on search findings are as follows. Foreign demand are the export trade of Zhejiang province. The re- the main factors affecting Zhejiang＇ s export; The relationship between exchange rate shock and Zhejiang＇ s export trade is negative and the elas- ticity coefficient is commonly between -1 and -2; The prices of competitors has a very small influ- ence on Zhejiang＇ s export and the influencing direction is different for different commodity catego- ry; Mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products are strongly influenced by foreign de- mand; Processing trade and general trade are similarly infected by external shocks. At last, some ad- vices are presented according to the results of our analysis.