基于精算模型的“新农保”个人账户替代率研究

the Substitution Rate under Individual Account of the New Rural Social Old-age Insurance Based on an Actuarial Model

文章以2009年9月国务院发布的《关于开展新型农村社会养老保险试点的指导意见》为依据,建立"新农保"个人账户精算模型,测算农村人均纯收入不同增长预期下个人账户的替代率水平,分析"新农保"替代率的影响因素。研究发现,参保年龄、缴费档次的选择、收入增长率和缴费方式等都对个人账户替代率水平有较大影响。因此,在农村居民人均纯收入稳步增长的情况下,要维持一定的个人账户替代率水平,不仅要鼓励农民延长缴费年限、选择较高档次的缴费标准,还应建立个人缴费和政府补贴自动调节机制,根据农村人均纯收入的增加适当调高个人缴费和政府补贴金额。

Based on the Guidelines on Launching Pilot Projects of New Rural Social Old-age Insurance issued by The State Council in September 2009 ,this paper builds up an actuarial model to count the substitution rate of individual account under different growth expectations of per capita net income of rural households,and to analyze factors which influence the substitution rate.Research shows that insured age,the selection of pay grade,income growth rate and pay mode have significant influences on the substitution rate.Therefore,encouraging farmers to extend the payment period and select the higher payment grades alone is not enough.While per capita net income of rural households is growing steadily,an automatic adjustment mechanism of individual accounts for payment and government subsidies should be established to adjust the income of individual accounts to the increase of per capita net income of rural households.