蒙特卡罗模拟-重要抽样法评估三七含铅的健康风险

Assessment of the health risk of lead in Panax Notoginseng with Monte Carlo simulation and important sampling

目的:应用蒙特卡罗模拟-重要抽样法计算每日极量摄入铅的概率。方法:先通过文献引用获取三七含铅量及人群平均体重数据,通过社会调查获取每日摄入三七量数据,通过实验获取三七铅提取率数据。然后用Matlab分别建立三七含铅量以及每日摄入三七量的概率分布模型,应用蒙特卡罗模拟-重要抽样法计算每日极量摄入铅的概率。最后比较蒙特卡罗模拟-重要抽样法和蒙特卡罗模拟-直接抽样法的优劣。结果:2种蒙特卡罗模拟方法的计算结果均与解析计算的结果一致,但是前者评估结果的变异系数明显比后者低。结论:蒙特卡罗模拟-重要抽样法可作为评估中药有害物质健康风险的重要方法加以推广。

Objective：A new assessment method was proposed for the health risk of lead in Panax notoginseng with Monte Carlo simula- tion and important sampling. Methods ： The data of average body weight and the data of lead in Panax notoginseng were quoted from lit- eratures. The data of daily intake of Panax notoginseng were got from social survy. And the data of extraction ratio of lead in Panax no- toginseng were got from experiments. Then the content of lead in Panax notoginseng and the daily intake of Panax notoginseng were modeled by lognormal distribution with Matlab respectively. The method of combinating Monte Carlo simulation and important sampling were introduced to compute the probability of average daily intake of lead exceeding the maximum tolerable daily intake （MTDI） of lead. This method was compared with that of combinating the Monte Carlo simulation and direct sampling. Results：The results show that the consequences of both methods were close to the consequence of analytical computation, but the combinating Monte Carlo simulation and important sampling can reduce the coefficient of variation of assessment results. Conclution ： This method can provide the reference information for health risk assessment of other harmful material in Chinese traditional medicine.