从变迁历史看人民币汇率制度改革新思路

本文介绍了人民币汇率制度的变迁历程,主要包括改革开放前的起步阶段、可调整固定汇率钉住制、钉住货币篮子和改革开放后的汇率双轨制及两种不同的有管理的浮动汇率制度。通过对历史上汇率制度的探讨和我国现状的分析,笔者认为我国汇率制度的改革应沿着"有管理的浮动汇率制—爬行钉住制—浮动汇率制"这条道路稳步发展,随着人民币汇率波动的逐步加大,人民币汇率制度最终过渡到浮动汇率制度。

This article describes the changing process of the RMB exchange rate regime,mainly including the initial stage of reform and opening up,an adjustable peg system of fixed exchange rate,pegged to a basket of currencies and the exchange rate reform and opening up,and two different dual-track system of managed floating exchange rate system.Through the historical analysis of exchange rate regimes and our status quo,the author believes that China＇s exchange rate regime reform should follow a ＂managed floating exchange rate system-crawling peg system-a floating exchange rate system,＂ path to proceed steadily.with the gradually increased fluctuations of RMB exchange rate,the RMB exchange rate system will eventually transit to a floating exchange rate system.