中国对非洲直接投资的出口效应分析

对外直接投资与国际贸易之间的关系是经济领域长期关注的问题,近年来,我国对非洲国家的直接投资和出口贸易成绩斐然,规模逐年增加,但对其相互关系的研究仍是空白。本文综合运用了协整理论、格兰杰检验法,利用1996~2008年间的数据,考察了我国对非洲直接投资与出口之间的关系。结果表明：对非直接投资与出口之间不存在长期均衡关系,投资也不是出口的原因。文章结合对非投资和贸易的特点对这种有悖于理论和经验的结论作出解释。

the relationship between outward Foreign direct investment and international trade is a concern for economics.in recent years,China＇s outward direct investment in African countries and export trade has increased substantially,but the study of their relationship is still in blank.This paper takes data from years 1996-2008,uses the cointegration theory and Granger test to study theirt relations.The results shows that there is no long-run equilibrium relationship between the investment and exports.Granger causality test provids no significant evidence of granger causality from Foreign direct investment to exports.In combination with the characteristics of investment and trade in Africa,this paper provides some explanations to the conclusions.