建设用地对碳排放的影响关系研究

Research on Influences of Construction Land on Carbon Emission

研究目的:研究建设用地对碳排放的影响。研究方法:基于随机形式的环境影响对人口、人均GDP和建设用地回归分析的STIRPAT模型方法。研究结果:测算1997—2007年分省碳排放量,分析1997—2007年碳排放对人口、人均GDP和建设用地的弹性系数。研究结论:人口、人均GDP和建设用地扩张是碳排放的主要驱动因素,建设用地扩张作为工业化和城市化的直接体现,对碳排放具有显著的正向影响;调整土地利用结构可起到抑制或缓解碳排放影响的作用。

The purpose of this paper is to assess the influences of construction land on carbon emission. Method employed is the STIRPAT Model, with which a regression is conducted to assess quantitatively the impacts of population, per capita GDP and construction land on random environmental effects. The results include that the provincial amounts of carbon emission from 1997 to 2007 have been calculated, the elastic coefficients of carbon emission to population, per capita GDP and construction land have been analyzed. It is concluded： （1）the expansions of population, per capita GDP and construction land are the main driving factors for carbon emission. As a direct reflection of industrialization and urbanization, the expansion of construction land has remarkable positive relation with carbon emission; （2）therefore, the adjustment of land-use structure can restrain or relieve carbon emission.