进出口贸易与地区经济增长的实证研究——基于吉林省的长短期均衡分析

An Empirical Research on Import and Export Trade and Regional Economic Growth:Based on Analysis of Long and Short Term Equilibrium in Jilin Province

本文利用吉林省1978-2007年的统计数据,采用协整检验和VECM模型,从长短期均衡角度,对吉林省进出口贸易总额与吉林省经济增长的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:进口对吉林省经济增长的拉动作用显著,出口对经济增长的拉动作用不显著,吉林省经济属于"进口"拉动型经济。

This paper studies empirically the relationship between import and export trade volume and economic growth in Jilin province using 1978-2007 statistics and cointegration test and VECM model. The result shows that the stimulating effect of imports on economic growth is significant and there is no significant effect that exports on economic growth. Jilin＇ s economy is of ＂import＂ pull-based.