摘要
Based on Gutenberg-Richter＇s relation,Bath＇s law,Omori＇s law and Well＇s relation of rupture scale,this paper forecasts the temporal decay,total number,possible area and greatest magnitude of strong aftershocks（greater than or equal to M6.0） of the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake by using the magnitude and statistical parameters of earthquakes in California area of USA.The number of strong aftershocks,the parameters of Gutenberg-Richter＇s relation and the modified form of Omori＇s law are validated based on the relocation data of aftershock sequence of the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake.Moreover,the spatio-temporal characteristics and wave energy release of the strong aftershocks（M≥6.0） are analyzed.The result shows that strong aftershocks may occur at the end of local drop and sharp drop on the wave energy release curve.
Based on Gutenberg-Richter＇s relation,Bath＇s law,Omori＇s law and Well＇s relation of rupture scale,this paper forecasts the temporal decay,total number,possible area and greatest magnitude of strong aftershocks（greater than or equal to M6.0） of the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake by using the magnitude and statistical parameters of earthquakes in California area of USA.The number of strong aftershocks,the parameters of Gutenberg-Richter＇s relation and the modified form of Omori＇s law are validated based on the relocation data of aftershock sequence of the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake.Moreover,the spatio-temporal characteristics and wave energy release of the strong aftershocks（M≥6.0） are analyzed.The result shows that strong aftershocks may occur at the end of local drop and sharp drop on the wave energy release curve.
基金
supported by Basic Science and Research Fund for Chinese Commonweal Institutes under grant No. 2008B07
the National Natural Science Foundation of China under grant No. 90715042
Special Research Project of Earth-quake Engineering under grant No. 200808008
National Science and Technology Support Plan under grant No. 2006BAC13B02
